Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II

Prediction Audit: FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Tallinn FC Tallinn
Aug 20, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Nõmme United II Nõmme United II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected FC Tallinn at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Tallinn Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Tallinn 36.1% 40.4% -4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 20.7% +9.0 pp Model Higher
Nõmme United II 34.2% 39.0% -4.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.7%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Tallinn; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Tallinn by 9.0 percentage points (27.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Tallinn 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Nõmme United II 34.2%
    • xG · FC Tallinn 1.32 — Nõmme United II 1.28
  2. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Tallinn 2.19 · Draw 4.28 · Nõmme United II 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Tallinn 40.4% · Draw 20.7% · Nõmme United II 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Tallinn 2.19 · Draw 4.28 · Nõmme United II 2.27
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Tallinn 40.4% · Draw 20.7% · Nõmme United II 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3894740

Closing Odds 4.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FC Tallinn 1–1 Nõmme United II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FC Tallinn 1.32 — Nõmme United II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22