Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / Tartu Welco vs Flora II

Prediction Audit: Tartu Welco vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tartu Welco Tartu Welco
Aug 15, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Flora II Flora II

AI correctly predicted the Tartu Welco win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tartu Welco Tartu Welco ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tartu Welco higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tartu Welco -21.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tartu Welco 39.0% 60.8% -21.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 18.4% +11.2 pp Model Edge
Flora II 31.5% 20.8% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tartu Welco's win probability at 60.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 21.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tartu Welco win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tartu Welco higher (60.9% vs model 39.0%, 21.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tartu Welco win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tartu Welco 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Flora II 31.5%
    • xG · Tartu Welco 1.38 — Flora II 1.22
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tartu Welco 1.46 · Draw 4.84 · Flora II 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Tartu Welco 60.8% · Draw 18.4% · Flora II 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Tartu Welco 1.46 · Draw 4.84 · Flora II 4.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Tartu Welco 60.8% · Draw 18.4% · Flora II 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tartu Welco win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3362079

Closing Odds 1.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tartu Welco win · Tartu Welco 2–1 Flora II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: Tartu Welco vs Flora II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Tartu Welco 1.38 — Flora II 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22