The model missed the final outcome (FC Tallinn win 0–2).
The model had projected Tartu Welco at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tartu Welco FC Tallinn ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | 39.9% | 84.4% | -44.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 8.7% | +20.8 pp | Model Edge |
| FC Tallinn | 30.6% | 7.0% | +23.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tartu Welco's win probability at 84.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 44.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was FC Tallinn win 0–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Tartu Welco; match finished FC Tallinn
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tartu Welco by 44.5 percentage points (84.3% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 20:49 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tartu Welco 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · FC Tallinn 30.6%
- xG · Tartu Welco 1.40 — FC Tallinn 1.20
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tartu Welco 1.06 · Draw 10.33 · FC Tallinn 12.87
- Implied 1X2 · Tartu Welco 84.4% · Draw 8.7% · FC Tallinn 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tartu Welco 1.06 · Draw 10.33 · FC Tallinn 12.87
- Implied 1X2 · Tartu Welco 84.4% · Draw 8.7% · FC Tallinn 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Tallinn win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (44 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Tartu Welco & FC Tallinn!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Esiliiga A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 22 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 81 | 39 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | Flora II | 30 | 72 | 53 | +19 | 48 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 60 | 55 | +5 | 41 |
| 4 | Viimsi | 30 | 56 | 31 | +25 | 50 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 37 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 36 |
| 7 | Elva | 30 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 48 |
| 8 | Maardu | 28 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 22 |
