Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / Flora II vs Maardu

Prediction Audit: Flora II vs Maardu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flora II Flora II
Jul 18, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
Maardu Maardu

The model missed the final outcome (Maardu win 1–3).

The model had projected Flora II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Flora II Maardu ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Flora II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flora II -13.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flora II 37.1% 50.4% -13.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.5% +9.1 pp Model Higher
Maardu 33.3% 29.1% +4.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Flora II's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maardu win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Flora II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Flora II; match finished Maardu

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Flora II by 13.4 percentage points (50.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flora II 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Maardu 33.4%
    • xG · Flora II 1.34 — Maardu 1.26
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flora II 1.76 · Draw 4.33 · Maardu 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Flora II 50.4% · Draw 20.5% · Maardu 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Flora II 1.76 · Draw 4.33 · Maardu 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Flora II 50.4% · Draw 20.5% · Maardu 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maardu win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 33/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1546779

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maardu win · Flora II 1–3 Maardu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: Flora II vs Maardu
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Flora II 1.34 — Maardu 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22