Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II

Prediction Audit: Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nõmme Kalju II Nõmme Kalju II
Jul 25, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.31
5 1.29
xG Accuracy: 25%
Flora II Flora II

The model missed the final outcome (Flora II win 0–5).

The model had projected Nõmme Kalju II at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nõmme Kalju II Flora II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Flora II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flora II -9.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nõmme Kalju II 35.6% 33.0% +2.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 22.6% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Flora II 34.7% 44.4% -9.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Flora II's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Flora II win 0–5.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Flora II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nõmme Kalju II by 9.7 percentage points (45.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Flora II 34.7%
    • xG · Nõmme Kalju II 1.31 — Flora II 1.29
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nõmme Kalju II 2.69 · Draw 3.93 · Flora II 2.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 33.0% · Draw 22.6% · Flora II 44.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nõmme Kalju II 2.69 · Draw 3.93 · Flora II 2.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Nõmme Kalju II 33.0% · Draw 22.6% · Flora II 44.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Flora II win · 0–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456458

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flora II win · Nõmme Kalju II 0–5 Flora II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Nõmme Kalju II 1.31 — Flora II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22