Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica

Prediction Audit: Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Delfin SC Delfin SC
Sep 06, 2026 - 21:00
0 0.92
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 70%
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica

AI correctly predicted the Universidad Catolica win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Delfin SC 23.6% 26.6% -3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 30.8% 26.6% +4.2 pp Aligned
Universidad Catolica 45.6% 46.8% -1.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Universidad Catolica win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Universidad Catolica attacking xG significantly stronger (1.37 vs 0.92)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Universidad Catolica win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Delfin SC 23.5% · Draw 30.9% · Universidad Catolica 45.6%
    • xG · Delfin SC 0.92 — Universidad Catolica 1.37
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Delfin SC 3.57 · Draw 3.57 · Universidad Catolica 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Delfin SC 26.6% · Draw 26.6% · Universidad Catolica 46.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Delfin SC 3.57 · Draw 3.57 · Universidad Catolica 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Delfin SC 26.6% · Draw 26.6% · Universidad Catolica 46.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Universidad Catolica win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6373810

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Universidad Catolica win · Delfin SC 0–1 Universidad Catolica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.5% · Draw 30.9% · Away 45.6%
  • xG (showing): Delfin SC 0.92 — Universidad Catolica 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.29)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 59.9% · Implied: 53.7% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +5.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74