Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito

Prediction Audit: Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
Aug 29, 2026 - 21:00
2 1.02
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 71%
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito

The model missed the final outcome (Guayaquil City FC win 2–1).

The model had projected LDU de Quito at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 LDU de Quito Guayaquil City FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: LDU de Quito -3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guayaquil City FC 28.1% 25.8% +2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 31.6% 30.7% +0.8 pp Aligned
LDU de Quito 40.4% 43.5% -3.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Guayaquil City FC win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Guayaquil City FC win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guayaquil City FC 28.0% · Draw 31.6% · LDU de Quito 40.4%
    • xG · Guayaquil City FC 1.02 — LDU de Quito 1.27
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guayaquil City FC 3.69 · Draw 3.10 · LDU de Quito 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Guayaquil City FC 25.8% · Draw 30.7% · LDU de Quito 43.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guayaquil City FC 3.69 · Draw 3.10 · LDU de Quito 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Guayaquil City FC 25.8% · Draw 30.7% · LDU de Quito 43.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guayaquil City FC win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5163893

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guayaquil City FC win · Guayaquil City FC 2–1 LDU de Quito
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Guayaquil City FC vs LDU de Quito
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.0% · Draw 31.6% · Away 40.4%
  • xG (showing): Guayaquil City FC 1.02 — LDU de Quito 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.29)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.9% · Over 2.5 40.1%); BTTS No (Yes 47.7% · No 52.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.7% · No 52.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74