Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC

Prediction Audit: Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Aug 15, 2026 - 00:00
3 1.62
2 1.04
xG Accuracy: 52%
Delfin SC Delfin SC

AI correctly predicted the Independiente del Valle win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Independiente del Valle higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Independiente del Valle -29.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Independiente del Valle 49.3% 79.2% -29.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.8% 14.0% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Delfin SC 22.8% 6.8% +16.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Independiente del Valle's win probability at 79.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.3%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Independiente del Valle win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.66) — 5 goals materialised
  • Independiente del Valle attacking xG significantly stronger (1.62 vs 1.04)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Independiente del Valle higher (79.2% vs model 49.3%, 29.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Independiente del Valle win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 49.3% · Draw 27.9% · Delfin SC 22.8%
    • xG · Independiente del Valle 1.62 — Delfin SC 1.04
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente del Valle 1.19 · Draw 6.73 · Delfin SC 13.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 79.2% · Draw 14.0% · Delfin SC 6.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente del Valle 1.19 · Draw 6.73 · Delfin SC 13.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente del Valle 79.2% · Draw 14.0% · Delfin SC 6.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Independiente del Valle win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3333953

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Independiente del Valle win · Independiente del Valle 3–2 Delfin SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Independiente del Valle 1.62 — Delfin SC 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.66)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74