Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC

Prediction Audit: Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Manta FC Manta FC
Aug 01, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.13
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 78%
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC

AI correctly predicted the Mushuc Runa SC win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Manta FC -3.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Manta FC 31.7% 34.7% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 31.2% 30.3% +0.9 pp Aligned
Mushuc Runa SC 37.1% 35.1% +2.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mushuc Runa SC win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Mushuc Runa SC win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Manta FC 31.7% · Draw 31.2% · Mushuc Runa SC 37.0%
    • xG · Manta FC 1.13 — Mushuc Runa SC 1.24
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Manta FC 2.75 · Draw 3.15 · Mushuc Runa SC 2.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Manta FC 34.7% · Draw 30.3% · Mushuc Runa SC 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Manta FC 2.75 · Draw 3.15 · Mushuc Runa SC 2.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Manta FC 34.7% · Draw 30.3% · Mushuc Runa SC 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mushuc Runa SC win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 85/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1824829

Closing Odds 2.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mushuc Runa SC win · Manta FC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Manta FC vs Mushuc Runa SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.7% · Draw 31.2% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Manta FC 1.13 — Mushuc Runa SC 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.37)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.8% · Over 2.5 42.2%); BTTS No (Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74