Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC

Prediction Audit: LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
Aug 04, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.89
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 93%
Delfin SC Delfin SC

AI correctly predicted the LDU de Quito win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 LDU de Quito LDU de Quito ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices LDU de Quito higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: LDU de Quito -20.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
LDU de Quito 53.1% 73.9% -20.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.1% 17.6% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Delfin SC 21.8% 8.5% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates LDU de Quito's win probability at 73.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.1%, a difference of 20.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (LDU de Quito win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.05) — 3 goals materialised
  • LDU de Quito attacking xG significantly stronger (1.89 vs 1.16)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced LDU de Quito higher (74.0% vs model 53.1%, 20.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (LDU de Quito win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · LDU de Quito 53.1% · Draw 25.1% · Delfin SC 21.8%
    • xG · LDU de Quito 1.89 — Delfin SC 1.16
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · LDU de Quito 1.28 · Draw 5.37 · Delfin SC 11.19
    • Implied 1X2 · LDU de Quito 73.9% · Draw 17.6% · Delfin SC 8.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · LDU de Quito 1.28 · Draw 5.37 · Delfin SC 11.19
    • Implied 1X2 · LDU de Quito 73.9% · Draw 17.6% · Delfin SC 8.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 04, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result LDU de Quito win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2359244

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result LDU de Quito win · LDU de Quito 2–1 Delfin SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: LDU de Quito vs Delfin SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-04 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.1% · Draw 25.1% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): LDU de Quito 1.89 — Delfin SC 1.16 (total xG ≈ 3.05)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.6% · No 40.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.6% · No 40.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74