Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC

Prediction Audit: Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Macara Macara
Jul 14, 2026 - 21:30
2 2.38
1 1.03
xG Accuracy: 89%
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC

AI correctly predicted the Macara win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Macara Macara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Macara considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Macara +20.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Macara 66.2% 46.0% +20.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 20.1% 28.9% -8.9 pp Market Higher
Mushuc Runa SC 13.7% 25.1% -11.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Macara's win probability at 66.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 46.0%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Macara win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.41) — 3 goals materialised
  • Macara attacking xG significantly stronger (2.38 vs 1.03)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Macara more conservatively (45.9% vs model 66.2%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Macara win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Macara 66.2% · Draw 20.1% · Mushuc Runa SC 13.7%
    • xG · Macara 2.38 — Mushuc Runa SC 1.03
  2. Jul 14, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Macara 2.06 · Draw 3.33 · Mushuc Runa SC 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Macara 46.2% · Draw 28.6% · Mushuc Runa SC 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Macara 2.07 · Draw 3.29 · Mushuc Runa SC 3.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Macara 46.0% · Draw 28.9% · Mushuc Runa SC 25.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 14, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Macara win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 47/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (76%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 30/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457713

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds 1.51
CLV Pending
Final Result Macara win · Macara 2–1 Mushuc Runa SC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 66.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 66.2% · Draw 20.1% · Away 13.7%
  • xG (showing): Macara 2.38 — Mushuc Runa SC 1.03 (total xG ≈ 3.41)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Macara
  • Model: 66.2% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +20.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.4% · No 40.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74