Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

Prediction Audit: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aucas Aucas
Jul 16, 2026 - 21:30
0 2.44
3 1.22
xG Accuracy: 31%
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle

The model missed the final outcome (Independiente del Valle win 0–3).

The model had projected Aucas at 63.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Aucas Independiente del Valle ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Aucas considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Aucas +34.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aucas 63.2% 28.9% +34.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 20.2% 30.4% -10.2 pp Market Higher
Independiente del Valle 16.6% 40.7% -24.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Aucas's win probability at 63.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 34.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Independiente del Valle win 0–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.66) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Aucas; match finished Independiente del Valle

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Aucas by 34.3 percentage points (28.9% vs model 63.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 16, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aucas 63.2% · Draw 20.2% · Independiente del Valle 16.6%
    • xG · Aucas 2.44 — Independiente del Valle 1.22
  2. Jul 16, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aucas 3.30 · Draw 3.14 · Independiente del Valle 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Aucas 28.9% · Draw 30.4% · Independiente del Valle 40.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 16, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aucas 3.30 · Draw 3.14 · Independiente del Valle 2.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Aucas 28.9% · Draw 30.4% · Independiente del Valle 40.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 16, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Independiente del Valle win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 20/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (81%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 5/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1487330

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Independiente del Valle win · Aucas 0–3 Independiente del Valle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Aucas; market prices Independiente del Valle instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Aucas 2.44 xG vs Independiente del Valle 1.22 → Aucas 63.2%
  • Market: Independiente del Valle ~28.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 29.2% · Over 2.5 70.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.3% · No 34.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Orense SC 30 36 47 -11 33
5 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 39
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 39
2 Universidad Catolica 30 3.5 1.6 +1.9 51
3 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
4 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
5 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
15 Orense SC 30 0.6 2.9 -2.3 33
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74