Predictions / Football / Russia. Youth Championship / Rostov U19 vs Almaz Antey U19

Prediction Audit: Rostov U19 vs Almaz Antey U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rostov U19 Rostov U19
Sep 18, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.50
2 1.10
xG Accuracy: 68%
⚽
Almaz Antey U19

The model missed the final outcome (Almaz Antey U19 win 1–2).

The model had projected Rostov U19 at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rostov U19 Almaz Antey U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +2.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rostov U19 44.8% 45.4% -0.6 pp Aligned
Draw 28.9% 26.2% +2.8 pp Aligned
Almaz Antey U19 26.2% 28.4% -2.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Almaz Antey U19 win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Almaz Antey U19 win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rostov U19 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Almaz Antey U19 26.2%
    • xG · Rostov U19 1.50 — Almaz Antey U19 1.10
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rostov U19 1.97 · Draw 3.42 · Almaz Antey U19 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Rostov U19 45.4% · Draw 26.2% · Almaz Antey U19 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rostov U19 1.97 · Draw 3.42 · Almaz Antey U19 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Rostov U19 45.4% · Draw 26.2% · Almaz Antey U19 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Almaz Antey U19 win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 86/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8198359

Closing Odds 3.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Almaz Antey U19 win · Rostov U19 1–2 Almaz Antey U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Youth Championship
  • Fixture: Rostov U19 vs Almaz Antey U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Rostov U19 1.5 — Almaz Antey U19 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.6% · Implied: 32.5% · Probability edge: +14.1 pts · Est. EV: +32.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Youth Championship Youth Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 18 2 4 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 17 2 5 53
3 Zenit U19 24 16 3 5 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 15 3 6 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 14 5 5 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 13 5 6 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 11 5 8 38
8 Spartak Moskva U19 24 7 10 7 31
9 Rostov U19 24 9 4 11 31
10 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 9 2 13 29
11 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 7 3 14 24
12 Chertanovo U20 24 6 5 13 23
13 Ural U20 24 6 4 14 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 5 4 15 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 4 3 17 15
16 Fakel U19 24 3 4 17 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 77 33 +44 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 72 36 +36 53
3 Zenit U19 24 68 32 +36 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 62 31 +31 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 59 37 +22 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 51 37 +14 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 46 51 -5 38
8 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 39 46 -7 29
9 Spartak Moskva U19 24 38 41 -3 31
10 Rostov U19 24 36 42 -6 31
11 Chertanovo U20 24 33 55 -22 23
12 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 32 56 -24 24
13 Ural U20 24 29 51 -22 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 29 64 -35 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 26 59 -33 15
16 Fakel U19 24 25 51 -26 13