Prediction Audit: Fakel U19 vs Almaz Antey U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fakel U19

Aug 21, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.27

2 1.33

xG Accuracy: 68%

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Almaz Antey U19

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Almaz Antey U19 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Almaz Antey U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fakel U19	33.8%	22.2%	+11.5 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	24.1%	+5.5 pp	Model Higher
Almaz Antey U19	36.6%	53.6%	-17.1 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Almaz Antey U19's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Almaz Antey U19 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Almaz Antey U19; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Almaz Antey U19 by 17.1 percentage points (53.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fakel U19 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Almaz Antey U19 36.6%
- xG · Fakel U19 1.27 — Almaz Antey U19 1.33
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fakel U19 4.05 · Draw 3.74 · Almaz Antey U19 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Fakel U19 22.2% · Draw 24.1% · Almaz Antey U19 53.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fakel U19 4.05 · Draw 3.74 · Almaz Antey U19 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Fakel U19 22.2% · Draw 24.1% · Almaz Antey U19 53.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4021220

Closing Odds 1.68

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Fakel U19 2–2 Almaz Antey U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Youth Championship
Fixture: Fakel U19 vs Almaz Antey U19
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Fakel U19 1.27 — Almaz Antey U19 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Youth Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	18	2	4	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	17	2	5	53
3	Zenit U19	24	16	3	5	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	15	3	6	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	14	5	5	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	13	5	6	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	11	5	8	38
8	Spartak Moskva U19	24	7	10	7	31
9	Rostov U19	24	9	4	11	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	9	2	13	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	7	3	14	24
12	Chertanovo U20	24	6	5	13	23
13	Ural U20	24	6	4	14	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	5	4	15	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	4	3	17	15
16	Fakel U19	24	3	4	17	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	77	33	+44	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	72	36	+36	53
3	Zenit U19	24	68	32	+36	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	62	31	+31	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	59	37	+22	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	51	37	+14	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	46	51	-5	38
8	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	39	46	-7	29
9	Spartak Moskva U19	24	38	41	-3	31
10	Rostov U19	24	36	42	-6	31
11	Chertanovo U20	24	33	55	-22	23
12	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	32	56	-24	24
13	Ural U20	24	29	51	-22	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	29	64	-35	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	26	59	-33	15
16	Fakel U19	24	25	51	-26	13