Prediction Audit: Rostov U19 vs Chertanovo U20 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rostov U19

Jul 17, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.50

2 1.10

xG Accuracy: 68%

Chertanovo U20

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Rostov U19 at 45.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Rostov U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Rostov U19	45.7%	64.3%	-18.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.7%	20.2%	+8.4 pp	Model Higher
Chertanovo U20	25.6%	15.4%	+10.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Rostov U19's win probability at 64.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.7%, a difference of 18.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rostov U19 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Rostov U19; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rostov U19 by 18.6 percentage points (64.3% vs model 45.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 17, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rostov U19 45.7% · Draw 28.7% · Chertanovo U20 25.6%
- xG · Rostov U19 1.50 — Chertanovo U20 1.10
Jul 17, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rostov U19 1.40 · Draw 4.45 · Chertanovo U20 5.85
- Implied 1X2 · Rostov U19 64.3% · Draw 20.2% · Chertanovo U20 15.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jul 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rostov U19 1.40 · Draw 4.45 · Chertanovo U20 5.85
- Implied 1X2 · Rostov U19 64.3% · Draw 20.2% · Chertanovo U20 15.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jul 17, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (19 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 23:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1518879

Closing Odds 1.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Rostov U19 2–2 Chertanovo U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Russian Youth Championship
Fixture: Rostov U19 vs Chertanovo U20
Kickoff: 2026-07-17 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
xG (showing): Rostov U19 1.5 — Chertanovo U20 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Youth Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	18	2	4	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	17	2	5	53
3	Zenit U19	24	16	3	5	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	15	3	6	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	14	5	5	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	13	5	6	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	11	5	8	38
8	Spartak Moskva U19	24	7	10	7	31
9	Rostov U19	24	9	4	11	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	9	2	13	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	7	3	14	24
12	Chertanovo U20	24	6	5	13	23
13	Ural U20	24	6	4	14	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	5	4	15	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	4	3	17	15
16	Fakel U19	24	3	4	17	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	77	33	+44	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	72	36	+36	53
3	Zenit U19	24	68	32	+36	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	62	31	+31	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	59	37	+22	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	51	37	+14	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	46	51	-5	38
8	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	39	46	-7	29
9	Spartak Moskva U19	24	38	41	-3	31
10	Rostov U19	24	36	42	-6	31
11	Chertanovo U20	24	33	55	-22	23
12	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	32	56	-24	24
13	Ural U20	24	29	51	-22	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	29	64	-35	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	26	59	-33	15
16	Fakel U19	24	25	51	-26	13