Predictions / Football / Russia. Youth Championship / CSKA Moskva U19 vs Rostov U19

Prediction Audit: CSKA Moskva U19 vs Rostov U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSKA Moskva U19 CSKA Moskva U19
Jul 03, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Rostov U19 Rostov U19

The model missed the final outcome (Rostov U19 win 2–3).

The model had projected CSKA Moskva U19 at 36.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSKA Moskva U19 Rostov U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CSKA Moskva U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CSKA Moskva U19 -34.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CSKA Moskva U19 36.0% 71.0% -34.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 16.9% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Rostov U19 34.7% 12.2% +22.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates CSKA Moskva U19's win probability at 71.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.0%, a difference of 34.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Rostov U19 win 2–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned CSKA Moskva U19; match finished Rostov U19

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CSKA Moskva U19 by 34.9 percentage points (70.9% vs model 36.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 03, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CSKA Moskva U19 36.1% · Draw 29.2% · Rostov U19 34.7%
    • xG · CSKA Moskva U19 1.28 — Rostov U19 1.32
  2. Jul 03, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CSKA Moskva U19 1.27 · Draw 5.35 · Rostov U19 7.40
    • Implied 1X2 · CSKA Moskva U19 71.0% · Draw 16.9% · Rostov U19 12.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jul 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CSKA Moskva U19 1.27 · Draw 5.35 · Rostov U19 7.40
    • Implied 1X2 · CSKA Moskva U19 71.0% · Draw 16.9% · Rostov U19 12.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jul 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rostov U19 win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 07:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1973026

Closing Odds 1.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rostov U19 win · CSKA Moskva U19 2–3 Rostov U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours CSKA Moskva U19; market prices CSKA Moskva U19 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: CSKA Moskva U19 1.28 xG vs Rostov U19 1.32 → CSKA Moskva U19 36.0%
  • Market: CSKA Moskva U19 ~71.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Youth Championship Youth Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 18 2 4 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 17 2 5 53
3 Zenit U19 24 16 3 5 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 15 3 6 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 14 5 5 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 13 5 6 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 11 5 8 38
8 Spartak Moskva U19 24 7 10 7 31
9 Rostov U19 24 9 4 11 31
10 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 9 2 13 29
11 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 7 3 14 24
12 Chertanovo U20 24 6 5 13 23
13 Ural U20 24 6 4 14 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 5 4 15 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 4 3 17 15
16 Fakel U19 24 3 4 17 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 77 33 +44 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 72 36 +36 53
3 Zenit U19 24 68 32 +36 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 62 31 +31 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 59 37 +22 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 51 37 +14 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 46 51 -5 38
8 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 39 46 -7 29
9 Spartak Moskva U19 24 38 41 -3 31
10 Rostov U19 24 36 42 -6 31
11 Chertanovo U20 24 33 55 -22 23
12 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 32 56 -24 24
13 Ural U20 24 29 51 -22 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 29 64 -35 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 26 59 -33 15
16 Fakel U19 24 25 51 -26 13