Predictions / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL 2 / Prospect United vs Macarthur Rams

Prediction Audit: Prospect United vs Macarthur Rams Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Prospect United
Jul 17, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.44
2 1.16
xG Accuracy: 70%
Macarthur Rams Macarthur Rams

The model missed the final outcome (Macarthur Rams win 1–2).

The model had projected Prospect United at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Prospect United Macarthur Rams ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Macarthur Rams higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Macarthur Rams -11.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Prospect United 38.4% 30.3% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.5% 24.9% +3.5 pp Aligned
Macarthur Rams 33.1% 44.8% -11.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Macarthur Rams's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.1%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Macarthur Rams win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Macarthur Rams than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Prospect United; match finished Macarthur Rams

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Prospect United by 11.6 percentage points (50.0% vs model 38.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Prospect United 38.4% · Draw 28.5% · Macarthur Rams 33.1%
    • xG · Prospect United 1.44 — Macarthur Rams 1.16
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Prospect United 2.97 · Draw 3.61 · Macarthur Rams 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Prospect United 30.3% · Draw 24.9% · Macarthur Rams 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Prospect United 2.97 · Draw 3.61 · Macarthur Rams 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Prospect United 30.3% · Draw 24.9% · Macarthur Rams 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Macarthur Rams win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1646463

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Macarthur Rams win · Prospect United 1–2 Macarthur Rams
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: New South Wales NPL 2
  • Fixture: Prospect United vs Macarthur Rams
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Prospect United 1.44 — Macarthur Rams 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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New South Wales NPL 2 New South Wales NPL 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 21 6 3 69
2 Northern Tigers 30 17 8 5 59
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 17 5 8 56
4 Canterbury Bankstown 30 15 6 9 51
5 Hills Brumbies 30 14 7 9 49
6 Macarthur Rams 30 14 6 10 48
7 Hakoah Sydney City 30 11 10 9 43
8 Rydalmere Lions 30 11 8 11 41
9 Bulls Academy 30 11 5 14 38
10 Inter Lions 30 10 5 15 35
11 Hurstville FC 30 9 6 15 33
12 Central Coast II 30 8 7 15 31
13 Dulwich Hill 30 7 9 14 30
14 Newcastle Jets II 30 6 11 13 29
15 Prospect United 30 4 14 12 26
16 Mt Druitt Town 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 79 36 +43 69
2 Canterbury Bankstown 30 71 53 +18 51
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 65 45 +20 56
4 Hills Brumbies 30 62 45 +17 49
5 Hakoah Sydney City 30 62 50 +12 43
6 Northern Tigers 30 55 30 +25 59
7 Newcastle Jets II 30 55 73 -18 29
8 Bulls Academy 30 52 50 +2 38
9 Central Coast II 30 46 67 -21 31
10 Rydalmere Lions 30 43 46 -3 41
11 Hurstville FC 30 42 55 -13 33
12 Macarthur Rams 30 40 36 +4 48
13 Dulwich Hill 30 40 58 -18 30
14 Inter Lions 30 39 54 -15 35
15 Mt Druitt Town 30 35 69 -34 23
16 Prospect United 30 33 52 -19 26