Predictions / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL 2 / Dulwich Hill vs Macarthur Rams

Prediction Audit: Dulwich Hill vs Macarthur Rams Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dulwich Hill Dulwich Hill
Aug 08, 2026 - 07:00
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Macarthur Rams Macarthur Rams

The model missed the final outcome (Macarthur Rams win 1–2).

The model had projected Dulwich Hill at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dulwich Hill Macarthur Rams ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Macarthur Rams higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Macarthur Rams -10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dulwich Hill 37.5% 31.7% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
Macarthur Rams 32.9% 43.0% -10.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Macarthur Rams's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Macarthur Rams win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Macarthur Rams than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Dulwich Hill; match finished Macarthur Rams

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dulwich Hill by 10.1 percentage points (47.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dulwich Hill 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Macarthur Rams 32.9%
    • xG · Dulwich Hill 1.35 — Macarthur Rams 1.25
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 06:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dulwich Hill 2.81 · Draw 3.51 · Macarthur Rams 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Dulwich Hill 31.7% · Draw 25.4% · Macarthur Rams 43.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dulwich Hill 2.81 · Draw 3.51 · Macarthur Rams 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · Dulwich Hill 31.7% · Draw 25.4% · Macarthur Rams 43.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Macarthur Rams win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2807712

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Macarthur Rams win · Dulwich Hill 1–2 Macarthur Rams
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: New South Wales NPL 2
  • Fixture: Dulwich Hill vs Macarthur Rams
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Dulwich Hill 1.35 — Macarthur Rams 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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New South Wales NPL 2 New South Wales NPL 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 21 6 3 69
2 Northern Tigers 30 17 8 5 59
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 17 5 8 56
4 Canterbury Bankstown 30 15 6 9 51
5 Hills Brumbies 30 14 7 9 49
6 Macarthur Rams 30 14 6 10 48
7 Hakoah Sydney City 30 11 10 9 43
8 Rydalmere Lions 30 11 8 11 41
9 Bulls Academy 30 11 5 14 38
10 Inter Lions 30 10 5 15 35
11 Hurstville FC 30 9 6 15 33
12 Central Coast II 30 8 7 15 31
13 Dulwich Hill 30 7 9 14 30
14 Newcastle Jets II 30 6 11 13 29
15 Prospect United 30 4 14 12 26
16 Mt Druitt Town 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 79 36 +43 69
2 Canterbury Bankstown 30 71 53 +18 51
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 65 45 +20 56
4 Hills Brumbies 30 62 45 +17 49
5 Hakoah Sydney City 30 62 50 +12 43
6 Northern Tigers 30 55 30 +25 59
7 Newcastle Jets II 30 55 73 -18 29
8 Bulls Academy 30 52 50 +2 38
9 Central Coast II 30 46 67 -21 31
10 Rydalmere Lions 30 43 46 -3 41
11 Hurstville FC 30 42 55 -13 33
12 Macarthur Rams 30 40 36 +4 48
13 Dulwich Hill 30 40 58 -18 30
14 Inter Lions 30 39 54 -15 35
15 Mt Druitt Town 30 35 69 -34 23
16 Prospect United 30 33 52 -19 26