Predictions / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL / Sydney II vs Rockdale City Suns

Prediction Audit: Sydney II vs Rockdale City Suns Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sydney II Sydney II
Aug 21, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Rockdale City Suns Rockdale City Suns

The model missed the final outcome (Sydney II win 2–1).

The model had projected Rockdale City Suns at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rockdale City Suns Sydney II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rockdale City Suns higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rockdale City Suns -17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sydney II 31.0% 21.6% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 21.9% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Rockdale City Suns 39.5% 56.5% -17.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rockdale City Suns's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sydney II win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rockdale City Suns than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rockdale City Suns; match finished Sydney II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rockdale City Suns by 17.0 percentage points (56.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sydney II 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Rockdale City Suns 39.5%
    • xG · Sydney II 1.21 — Rockdale City Suns 1.39
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sydney II 3.80 · Draw 3.75 · Rockdale City Suns 1.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Sydney II 24.1% · Draw 24.4% · Rockdale City Suns 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sydney II 4.26 · Draw 4.21 · Rockdale City Suns 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Sydney II 21.6% · Draw 21.9% · Rockdale City Suns 56.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sydney II win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4018464

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sydney II win · Sydney II 2–1 Rockdale City Suns
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: New South Wales NPL
  • Fixture: Sydney II vs Rockdale City Suns
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Sydney II 1.21 — Rockdale City Suns 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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New South Wales NPL New South Wales NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 21 5 4 68
2 Sydney United 30 20 4 6 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46
5 Manly United 30 12 8 10 44
6 Rockdale City Suns 30 13 4 13 43
7 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 41
8 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 41
9 Sydney II 30 11 8 11 41
10 Western Sydney W. II 30 11 5 14 38
11 Wollongong Wolves 30 11 5 14 38
12 St George City FA 30 10 7 13 37
13 Blacktown City 30 8 8 14 32
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 32
15 St. George Saints 30 8 3 19 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 66 35 +31 68
2 Western Sydney W. II 30 55 49 +6 38
3 Marconi Stallions 30 50 22 +28 62
4 Rockdale City Suns 30 48 42 +6 43
5 Sydney United 30 47 20 +27 64
6 Sutherland Sharks 30 46 38 +8 46
7 SD Raiders 30 44 49 -5 41
8 Blacktown City 30 41 48 -7 32
9 Manly United 30 39 35 +4 44
10 Sydney II 30 38 43 -5 41
11 UNSW 30 38 49 -11 32
12 NWS Spirit 30 37 38 -1 41
13 Wollongong Wolves 30 35 43 -8 38
14 Sydney Olympic 30 32 62 -30 23
15 St George City FA 30 30 46 -16 37
16 St. George Saints 30 28 55 -27 27