The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Vancouver FC at 44.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vancouver FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 44.4% | 37.3% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.0% | 23.6% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| York United | 30.7% | 39.1% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates York United's win probability at 39.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.7%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on York United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.37) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Vancouver FC; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vancouver FC by 8.4 percentage points (52.8% vs model 44.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vancouver FC 44.4% · Draw 24.9% · York United 30.7%
- xG · Vancouver FC 1.85 — York United 1.52
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 2.40 · Draw 3.79 · York United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 37.3% · Draw 23.6% · York United 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 2.40 · Draw 3.79 · York United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 37.3% · Draw 23.6% · York United 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Vancouver FC & York United!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Canadian Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | York United | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | York United | 23 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 24 |
| 3 | Forge | 23 | 35 | 17 | +18 | 47 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 33 |
| 5 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 23 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 23 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 14 |
| 3 | Forge | 23 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 47 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 8 | York United | 23 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
