Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

Prediction Audit: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:10
0 1.60
2 1.88
xG Accuracy: 62%
⚽
Supra du Quebec

AI correctly predicted the Supra du Quebec win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Atlético Ottawa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Atlético Ottawa -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atlético Ottawa 32.0% 39.0% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.6% 23.4% +1.2 pp Aligned
Supra du Quebec 43.5% 37.6% +5.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Atlético Ottawa's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.0%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Supra du Quebec win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Atlético Ottawa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Supra du Quebec higher (50.5% vs model 43.5%, 7.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Supra du Quebec win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atlético Ottawa 31.9% · Draw 24.6% · Supra du Quebec 43.5%
    • xG · Atlético Ottawa 1.60 — Supra du Quebec 1.88
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Ottawa 2.35 · Draw 3.92 · Supra du Quebec 2.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Ottawa 39.0% · Draw 23.4% · Supra du Quebec 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Ottawa 2.35 · Draw 3.92 · Supra du Quebec 2.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Ottawa 39.0% · Draw 23.4% · Supra du Quebec 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Supra du Quebec win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8688290

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Supra du Quebec win · Atlético Ottawa 0–2 Supra du Quebec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 24.6% · Away 43.5%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Ottawa 1.6 — Supra du Quebec 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.5% · Implied: 60.2% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions