Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa

Prediction Audit: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
Aug 22, 2026 - 20:30
3 1.80
1 2.04
xG Accuracy: 54%
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa

The model missed the final outcome (Cavalry FC win 3–1).

The model had projected Atlético Ottawa at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Ottawa Cavalry FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cavalry FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cavalry FC -27.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cavalry FC 33.8% 61.6% -27.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.1% 21.7% +1.4 pp Aligned
Atlético Ottawa 43.2% 16.7% +26.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cavalry FC's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cavalry FC win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.84) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Atlético Ottawa; match finished Cavalry FC
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atlético Ottawa by 27.8 percentage points (71.0% vs model 43.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cavalry FC 33.8% · Draw 23.1% · Atlético Ottawa 43.1%
    • xG · Cavalry FC 1.80 — Atlético Ottawa 2.04
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.49 · Draw 4.22 · Atlético Ottawa 5.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 61.6% · Draw 21.7% · Atlético Ottawa 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.49 · Draw 4.22 · Atlético Ottawa 5.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 61.6% · Draw 21.7% · Atlético Ottawa 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cavalry FC win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 43/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 12/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243223

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cavalry FC win · Cavalry FC 3–1 Atlético Ottawa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 23.1% · Away 43.1%
  • xG (showing): Cavalry FC 1.8 — Atlético Ottawa 2.04 (total xG ≈ 3.84)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Atlético Ottawa
  • Model: 43.1% · Implied: 16.7% · Probability edge: +26.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.6% · No 26.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions