The model missed the final outcome (York United win 4–3).
The model had projected HFX Wanderers FC at 42.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 HFX Wanderers FC York United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 4-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 35.2% | 41.8% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.5% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 42.2% | 31.7% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates HFX Wanderers FC's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.7%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was York United win 4–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on HFX Wanderers FC.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.98) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned HFX Wanderers FC; match finished York United
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on HFX Wanderers FC by 10.5 percentage points (31.7% vs model 42.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · York United 35.2% · Draw 22.6% · HFX Wanderers FC 42.2%
- xG · York United 1.90 — HFX Wanderers FC 2.08
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · York United 2.19 · Draw 3.46 · HFX Wanderers FC 2.89
- Implied 1X2 · York United 41.8% · Draw 26.5% · HFX Wanderers FC 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · York United 2.19 · Draw 3.46 · HFX Wanderers FC 2.89
- Implied 1X2 · York United 41.8% · Draw 26.5% · HFX Wanderers FC 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result York United win · 4–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (54%+)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Canadian Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | York United | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 3 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 26 |
| 4 | Forge | 22 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 46 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | York United | 22 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 24 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 22 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 3 | Forge | 22 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 46 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 32 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 8 | York United | 22 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
