Prediction Audit: Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Supra du Quebec

Aug 16, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.89

2 2.12

xG Accuracy: 76%

Atlético Ottawa

AI correctly predicted the Atlético Ottawa win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Supra du Quebec	34.4%	42.4%	-8.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	22.4%	25.7%	-3.2 pp	Aligned
Atlético Ottawa	43.2%	31.9%	+11.3 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Atlético Ottawa's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atlético Ottawa win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Atlético Ottawa.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.01) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atlético Ottawa more conservatively (31.9% vs model 43.2%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atlético Ottawa win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Supra du Quebec 34.3% · Draw 22.4% · Atlético Ottawa 43.3%
- xG · Supra du Quebec 1.89 — Atlético Ottawa 2.12
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Supra du Quebec 2.16 · Draw 3.57 · Atlético Ottawa 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Supra du Quebec 42.4% · Draw 25.7% · Atlético Ottawa 31.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Supra du Quebec 2.16 · Draw 3.57 · Atlético Ottawa 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Supra du Quebec 42.4% · Draw 25.7% · Atlético Ottawa 31.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Atlético Ottawa win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100

Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3610945

Closing Odds 2.87

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atlético Ottawa win · Supra du Quebec 1–2 Atlético Ottawa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Supra du Quebec 1.89 — Atlético Ottawa 2.12 (total xG ≈ 4.01)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	23	14	5	4	47
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	33
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	23	5	9	9	24
8	Pacific FC	23	2	8	13	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	York United	23	36	53	-17	24
3	Forge	23	35	17	+18	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	35	33	+2	33
5	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	23	30	47	-17	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	23	12.1	9.3	+2.8	14
3	Forge	23	8.3	6.8	+1.5	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	6.4	5.8	+0.6	33
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	23	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24