Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Pacific FC vs York United

Prediction Audit: Pacific FC vs York United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pacific FC Pacific FC
Aug 08, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.51
1 1.72
xG Accuracy: 71%
York United York United

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected York United at 41.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 York United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates York United considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: York United +7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pacific FC 32.6% 39.1% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.8% 26.5% -0.6 pp Aligned
York United 41.5% 34.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates York United's win probability at 41.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on York United.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned York United; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on York United by 7.2 percentage points (34.3% vs model 41.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pacific FC 32.6% · Draw 25.9% · York United 41.5%
    • xG · Pacific FC 1.51 — York United 1.72
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pacific FC 2.30 · Draw 3.40 · York United 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Pacific FC 39.1% · Draw 26.5% · York United 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pacific FC 2.30 · Draw 3.40 · York United 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Pacific FC 39.1% · Draw 26.5% · York United 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2830967

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pacific FC 1–1 York United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.6% · Draw 25.9% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): Pacific FC 1.51 — York United 1.72 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.4% · Over 2.5 62.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.3% · No 34.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.3% · No 34.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 23 14 5 4 47
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 25 9 6 10 33
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 23 5 9 9 24
8 Pacific FC 23 2 8 13 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 York United 23 36 53 -17 24
3 Forge 23 35 17 +18 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 35 33 +2 33
5 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 23 30 47 -17 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 23 12.1 9.3 +2.8 14
3 Forge 23 8.3 6.8 +1.5 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 6.4 5.8 +0.6 33
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 23 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions