Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec

Prediction Audit: Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pacific FC Pacific FC
Aug 01, 2026 - 02:00
1 1.49
2 1.74
xG Accuracy: 81%
⚽
Supra du Quebec

AI correctly predicted the Supra du Quebec win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Supra du Quebec +2.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pacific FC 32.5% 35.0% -2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 26.0% 26.2% -0.2 pp Aligned
Supra du Quebec 41.5% 38.8% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Supra du Quebec win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.23) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Supra du Quebec win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 00:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pacific FC 32.5% · Draw 26.0% · Supra du Quebec 41.5%
    • xG · Pacific FC 1.49 — Supra du Quebec 1.74
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pacific FC 2.62 · Draw 3.50 · Supra du Quebec 2.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Pacific FC 35.0% · Draw 26.2% · Supra du Quebec 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pacific FC 2.62 · Draw 3.50 · Supra du Quebec 2.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Pacific FC 35.0% · Draw 26.2% · Supra du Quebec 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Supra du Quebec win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 86/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1781587

Closing Odds 2.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Supra du Quebec win · Pacific FC 1–2 Supra du Quebec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Pacific FC 1.49 — Supra du Quebec 1.74 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 23 14 5 4 47
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 25 9 6 10 33
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 23 5 9 9 24
8 Pacific FC 23 2 8 13 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 York United 23 36 53 -17 24
3 Forge 23 35 17 +18 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 35 33 +2 33
5 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 23 30 47 -17 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 23 12.1 9.3 +2.8 14
3 Forge 23 8.3 6.8 +1.5 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 6.4 5.8 +0.6 33
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 23 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions