Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC

Prediction Audit: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vancouver FC Vancouver FC
Jul 25, 2026 - 02:00
1 1.45
0 1.65
xG Accuracy: 56%
Cavalry FC Cavalry FC

The model missed the final outcome (Vancouver FC win 1–0).

The model had projected Cavalry FC at 42.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cavalry FC Vancouver FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Vancouver FC +0.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vancouver FC 30.9% 30.2% +0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 26.6% 26.7% -0.1 pp Aligned
Cavalry FC 42.5% 43.1% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vancouver FC win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Vancouver FC win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vancouver FC 30.9% · Draw 26.6% · Cavalry FC 42.5%
    • xG · Vancouver FC 1.45 — Cavalry FC 1.65
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 3.07 · Draw 3.47 · Cavalry FC 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 30.2% · Draw 26.7% · Cavalry FC 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 3.07 · Draw 3.47 · Cavalry FC 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 30.2% · Draw 26.7% · Cavalry FC 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vancouver FC win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 96/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449596

Closing Odds 3.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vancouver FC win · Vancouver FC 1–0 Cavalry FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Vancouver FC 1.45 — Cavalry FC 1.65 (total xG ≈ 3.1)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions