Prediction Audit: Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Supra du Quebec

Jul 05, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.23

2 1.37

xG Accuracy: 79%

Forge

AI correctly predicted the Forge win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Forge Forge ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Forge win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 05, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Supra du Quebec 1.23 — Forge 1.37
Jul 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Forge win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1521116

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Forge win · Supra du Quebec 1–2 Forge

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Forge
Kickoff: 2026-07-05 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Supra du Quebec 1.23 — Forge 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	16	6	4	54
2	Forge	26	16	6	4	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	13	4	9	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	26	7	7	12	28
7	York United	26	6	9	11	27
8	Pacific FC	26	2	8	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	53	21	+32	54
2	Forge	26	46	20	+26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	40	41	-1	43
4	HFX Wanderers FC	26	40	44	-4	28
5	Supra du Quebec	26	40	47	-7	32
6	York United	26	40	61	-21	27
7	Vancouver FC	26	37	35	+2	34
8	Pacific FC	26	30	57	-27	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	9.2	3.3	+5.9	54
2	Pacific FC	26	15.4	10.9	+4.5	14
3	Forge	26	10.3	7.6	+2.7	54
4	Vancouver FC	26	7.3	7.0	+0.3	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	11.1	11.1	0.0	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	26	9.9	12.8	-2.9	28
7	Atlético Ottawa	26	8.4	12.6	-4.2	43
8	York United	26	8.0	14.5	-6.5	27