Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec

Prediction Audit: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
Jul 29, 2026 - 01:00
2 1.70
1 1.53
xG Accuracy: 80%
⚽
Supra du Quebec

AI correctly predicted the Cavalry FC win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cavalry FC Cavalry FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cavalry FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cavalry FC -22.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cavalry FC 47.8% 69.9% -22.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.0% 18.9% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Supra du Quebec 27.1% 11.2% +16.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cavalry FC's win probability at 69.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.8%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cavalry FC win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.23) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cavalry FC higher (69.9% vs model 47.8%, 22.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cavalry FC win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cavalry FC 47.8% · Draw 25.0% · Supra du Quebec 27.2%
    • xG · Cavalry FC 1.70 — Supra du Quebec 1.53
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.31 · Draw 4.85 · Supra du Quebec 8.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 69.9% · Draw 18.9% · Supra du Quebec 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 28, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.31 · Draw 4.85 · Supra du Quebec 8.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 69.9% · Draw 18.9% · Supra du Quebec 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cavalry FC win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455234

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cavalry FC win · Cavalry FC 2–1 Supra du Quebec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Cavalry FC 1.7 — Supra du Quebec 1.53 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions