AI correctly predicted the OLS win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 OLS OLS ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | 41.9% | 68.3% | -26.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 15.6% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
| TPV | 28.8% | 16.1% | +12.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates OLS's win probability at 68.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (OLS win 4–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced OLS higher (68.3% vs model 41.9%, 26.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (OLS win 4–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · OLS 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · TPV 28.8%
- xG · OLS 1.44 — TPV 1.16
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · OLS 1.35 · Draw 5.93 · TPV 5.71
- Implied 1X2 · OLS 68.3% · Draw 15.6% · TPV 16.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · OLS 1.35 · Draw 5.93 · TPV 5.71
- Implied 1X2 · OLS 68.3% · Draw 15.6% · TPV 16.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result OLS win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ykkönen — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 50 |
| 2 | Rops | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44 |
| 3 | SalPa | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | OLS | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | VJS | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | FC jazz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 7 | PKKU | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 9 | TPV | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 58 | 26 | +32 | 50 |
| 2 | JJK | 25 | 55 | 53 | +2 | 31 |
| 3 | Rops | 25 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 44 |
| 4 | SalPa | 25 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | OLS | 25 | 50 | 37 | +13 | 41 |
| 6 | PKKU | 25 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 38 |
| 7 | VJS | 25 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 40 |
| 8 | KuPS Akatemia | 24 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 15 |
| 9 | FC jazz | 25 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 39 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 24 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 23 |
| 11 | TPV | 25 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 12 | KPV-j | 25 | 27 | 75 | -48 | 18 |
