Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / TPV vs Rops

Prediction Audit: TPV vs Rops Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TPV TPV
Aug 01, 2026 - 15:00
6 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 17%
Rops Rops

The model missed the final outcome (TPV win 6–3).

The model had projected Rops at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rops TPV ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rops higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rops -23.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TPV 34.7% 19.0% +15.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.6% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Rops 35.6% 59.4% -23.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rops's win probability at 59.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was TPV win 6–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rops; match finished TPV

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rops by 23.8 percentage points (59.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TPV 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Rops 35.6%
    • xG · TPV 1.29 — Rops 1.31
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TPV 4.89 · Draw 4.29 · Rops 1.56
    • Implied 1X2 · TPV 19.0% · Draw 21.6% · Rops 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · TPV 4.89 · Draw 4.29 · Rops 1.56
    • Implied 1X2 · TPV 19.0% · Draw 21.6% · Rops 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result TPV win · 6–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1815262

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result TPV win · TPV 6–3 Rops
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: TPV vs Rops
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): TPV 1.29 — Rops 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ykkönen Matches Track TPV Next Match Prediction Track Rops Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for TPV & Rops!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 25 15 5 5 50
2 Rops 25 12 8 5 44
3 SalPa 25 12 6 7 42
4 OLS 25 11 8 6 41
5 VJS 25 10 10 5 40
6 FC jazz 25 11 6 8 39
7 PKKU 25 10 8 7 38
8 JJK 25 8 7 10 31
9 TPV 25 7 6 12 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 25 5 3 17 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tampere United 25 58 26 +32 50
2 JJK 25 55 53 +2 31
3 Rops 25 52 37 +15 44
4 SalPa 25 52 45 +7 42
5 OLS 25 50 37 +13 41
6 PKKU 25 45 37 +8 38
7 VJS 25 44 32 +12 40
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 25 38 32 +6 39
10 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
11 TPV 25 35 48 -13 27
12 KPV-j 25 27 75 -48 18