Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / FC jazz vs TPV

Prediction Audit: FC jazz vs TPV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC jazz FC jazz
Jul 24, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
TPV TPV

AI correctly predicted the FC jazz win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC jazz FC jazz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC jazz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC jazz -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC jazz 36.1% 46.4% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.9% +6.8 pp Model Higher
TPV 34.2% 30.7% +3.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates FC jazz's win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC jazz win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FC jazz than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC jazz higher (46.4% vs model 36.1%, 10.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC jazz win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC jazz 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · TPV 34.2%
    • xG · FC jazz 1.32 — TPV 1.28
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC jazz 2.00 · Draw 4.06 · TPV 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · FC jazz 46.4% · Draw 22.9% · TPV 30.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC jazz 2.00 · Draw 4.06 · TPV 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · FC jazz 46.4% · Draw 22.9% · TPV 30.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC jazz win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452302

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC jazz win · FC jazz 4–0 TPV
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: FC jazz vs TPV
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): FC jazz 1.32 — TPV 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 25 15 5 5 50
2 Rops 25 12 8 5 44
3 SalPa 25 12 6 7 42
4 OLS 25 11 8 6 41
5 VJS 25 10 10 5 40
6 FC jazz 25 11 6 8 39
7 PKKU 25 10 8 7 38
8 JJK 25 8 7 10 31
9 TPV 25 7 6 12 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 25 5 3 17 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tampere United 25 58 26 +32 50
2 JJK 25 55 53 +2 31
3 Rops 25 52 37 +15 44
4 SalPa 25 52 45 +7 42
5 OLS 25 50 37 +13 41
6 PKKU 25 45 37 +8 38
7 VJS 25 44 32 +12 40
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 25 38 32 +6 39
10 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
11 TPV 25 35 48 -13 27
12 KPV-j 25 27 75 -48 18