Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / PKKU vs VJS

Prediction Audit: PKKU vs VJS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

PKKU PKKU
Jul 22, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
VJS VJS

The model missed the final outcome (VJS win 1–3).

The model had projected PKKU at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 PKKU VJS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
PKKU 35.2% 37.6% -2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
VJS 35.2% 37.5% -2.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was VJS win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned PKKU; match finished VJS

Market lesson

The full-time result was VJS win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · PKKU 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · VJS 35.2%
    • xG · PKKU 1.30 — VJS 1.30
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · PKKU 2.47 · Draw 3.73 · VJS 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · PKKU 37.6% · Draw 24.9% · VJS 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · PKKU 2.47 · Draw 3.73 · VJS 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · PKKU 37.6% · Draw 24.9% · VJS 37.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VJS win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2126248

Closing Odds 3.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VJS win · PKKU 1–3 VJS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: PKKU vs VJS
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): PKKU 1.3 — VJS 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ykkönen Matches Track PKKU Next Match Prediction Track VJS Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for PKKU & VJS!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 25 15 5 5 50
2 Rops 25 12 8 5 44
3 SalPa 25 12 6 7 42
4 OLS 25 11 8 6 41
5 VJS 25 10 10 5 40
6 FC jazz 25 11 6 8 39
7 PKKU 25 10 8 7 38
8 JJK 25 8 7 10 31
9 TPV 25 7 6 12 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 25 5 3 17 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tampere United 25 58 26 +32 50
2 JJK 25 55 53 +2 31
3 Rops 25 52 37 +15 44
4 SalPa 25 52 45 +7 42
5 OLS 25 50 37 +13 41
6 PKKU 25 45 37 +8 38
7 VJS 25 44 32 +12 40
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 25 38 32 +6 39
10 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
11 TPV 25 35 48 -13 27
12 KPV-j 25 27 75 -48 18