Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Qizilqum vs Buxoro

Prediction Audit: Qizilqum vs Buxoro Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Qizilqum Qizilqum
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:15
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Buxoro Buxoro

The model missed the final outcome (Qizilqum win 3–2).

The model had projected Buxoro at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Buxoro Qizilqum ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -2.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Qizilqum 34.2% 32.7% +1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 32.3% -2.7 pp Aligned
Buxoro 36.1% 35.0% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Qizilqum win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Buxoro; match finished Qizilqum

Market lesson

The full-time result was Qizilqum win 3–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Qizilqum 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Buxoro 36.1%
    • xG · Qizilqum 1.28 — Buxoro 1.32
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Qizilqum 2.84 · Draw 2.87 · Buxoro 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Qizilqum 32.7% · Draw 32.3% · Buxoro 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Qizilqum 2.84 · Draw 2.87 · Buxoro 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Qizilqum 32.7% · Draw 32.3% · Buxoro 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Qizilqum win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 86/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6159882

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Qizilqum win · Qizilqum 3–2 Buxoro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Qizilqum vs Buxoro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Qizilqum 1.28 — Buxoro 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4