Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Pakhtakor vs Surkhon

Prediction Audit: Pakhtakor vs Surkhon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pakhtakor Pakhtakor
Aug 21, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.47
0 1.13
xG Accuracy: 49%
Surkhon Surkhon

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Pakhtakor at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pakhtakor Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pakhtakor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pakhtakor -34.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pakhtakor 43.4% 77.7% -34.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 14.9% +14.3 pp Model Edge
Surkhon 27.5% 7.5% +20.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pakhtakor's win probability at 77.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 34.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Pakhtakor; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pakhtakor by 34.3 percentage points (77.7% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pakhtakor 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Surkhon 27.5%
    • xG · Pakhtakor 1.47 — Surkhon 1.13
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pakhtakor 1.19 · Draw 6.21 · Surkhon 12.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Pakhtakor 77.7% · Draw 14.9% · Surkhon 7.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pakhtakor 1.19 · Draw 6.21 · Surkhon 12.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Pakhtakor 77.7% · Draw 14.9% · Surkhon 7.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4022402

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pakhtakor 0–0 Surkhon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Pakhtakor; market prices Pakhtakor instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Pakhtakor 1.47 xG vs Surkhon 1.13 → Pakhtakor 43.4%
  • Market: Pakhtakor ~77.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4