Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon

Prediction Audit: Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kokand-1912 Kokand-1912
Aug 03, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Surkhon Surkhon

AI correctly predicted the Surkhon win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Surkhon Surkhon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kokand-1912 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kokand-1912 -14.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kokand-1912 33.3% 48.0% -14.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Surkhon 37.1% 23.6% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kokand-1912's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Surkhon win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kokand-1912 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Surkhon higher (51.8% vs model 37.1%, 14.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Surkhon win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kokand-1912 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Surkhon 37.0%
    • xG · Kokand-1912 1.26 — Surkhon 1.34
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kokand-1912 1.93 · Draw 3.27 · Surkhon 3.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Kokand-1912 48.0% · Draw 28.3% · Surkhon 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kokand-1912 1.93 · Draw 3.27 · Surkhon 3.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Kokand-1912 48.0% · Draw 28.3% · Surkhon 23.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Surkhon win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2131365

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Surkhon win · Kokand-1912 0–1 Surkhon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Kokand-1912 1.26 — Surkhon 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Surkhon
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 23.6% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Super League Matches Track Kokand-1912 Next Match Prediction Track Surkhon Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kokand-1912 & Surkhon!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4