Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Xorazm vs Surkhon

Prediction Audit: Xorazm vs Surkhon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Xorazm Xorazm
Jul 28, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Surkhon Surkhon

AI correctly predicted the Xorazm win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Xorazm Xorazm ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Xorazm higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Xorazm -7.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Xorazm 38.1% 45.7% -7.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.8% 29.3% +0.5 pp Aligned
Surkhon 32.1% 25.0% +7.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Xorazm's win probability at 45.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.1%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Xorazm win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Xorazm. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Xorazm higher (45.7% vs model 38.1%, 7.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Xorazm win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 28, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Xorazm 38.1% · Draw 29.8% · Surkhon 32.0%
    • xG · Xorazm 1.30 — Surkhon 1.30
  2. Jul 28, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Xorazm 2.04 · Draw 3.13 · Surkhon 3.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Xorazm 45.5% · Draw 29.6% · Surkhon 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 28, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Xorazm 2.03 · Draw 3.17 · Surkhon 3.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Xorazm 45.7% · Draw 29.3% · Surkhon 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 28, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Xorazm win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451925

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Xorazm win · Xorazm 1–0 Surkhon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Xorazm vs Surkhon
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-28 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Xorazm 1.3 — Surkhon 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4