Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Navbahor vs Olmaliq

Prediction Audit: Navbahor vs Olmaliq Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Navbahor Navbahor
Jul 17, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 52%
Olmaliq Olmaliq

AI correctly predicted the Olmaliq win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olmaliq Olmaliq ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Navbahor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Navbahor -22.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Navbahor 33.3% 55.6% -22.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.2 pp Aligned
Olmaliq 37.1% 18.0% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Navbahor's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 22.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Olmaliq win 2–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Olmaliq higher (59.4% vs model 37.1%, 22.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Olmaliq win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Navbahor 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Olmaliq 37.0%
    • xG · Navbahor 1.26 — Olmaliq 1.34
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Navbahor 1.67 · Draw 3.51 · Olmaliq 5.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Navbahor 55.6% · Draw 26.4% · Olmaliq 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Navbahor 1.67 · Draw 3.51 · Olmaliq 5.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Navbahor 55.6% · Draw 26.4% · Olmaliq 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olmaliq win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1548583

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds 2.7
CLV Pending
Final Result Olmaliq win · Navbahor 2–3 Olmaliq
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Uzbekistan Super League
  • Fixture: Navbahor vs Olmaliq
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Navbahor 1.26 — Olmaliq 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Olmaliq
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 18.0% · Probability edge: +19.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4