Predictions / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Mash'al vs Kokand-1912

Prediction Audit: Mash'al vs Kokand-1912 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mash'al Mash'al
Jul 17, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Kokand-1912 Kokand-1912

The model missed the final outcome (Mash'al win 1–0).

The model had projected Kokand-1912 at 40.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kokand-1912 Mash'al ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kokand-1912 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kokand-1912 -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mash'al 29.5% 20.9% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.8% 29.2% +0.6 pp Aligned
Kokand-1912 40.7% 49.9% -9.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kokand-1912's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.7%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mash'al win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kokand-1912. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kokand-1912; match finished Mash'al

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kokand-1912 by 9.2 percentage points (49.9% vs model 40.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mash'al 29.5% · Draw 29.9% · Kokand-1912 40.6%
    • xG · Mash'al 1.26 — Kokand-1912 1.34
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mash'al 4.44 · Draw 3.17 · Kokand-1912 1.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Mash'al 20.9% · Draw 29.2% · Kokand-1912 49.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mash'al 4.44 · Draw 3.17 · Kokand-1912 1.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Mash'al 20.9% · Draw 29.2% · Kokand-1912 49.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mash'al win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1489326

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mash'al win · Mash'al 1–0 Kokand-1912
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Uzbekistan Super League
  • Fixture: Mash'al vs Kokand-1912
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Mash'al 1.26 — Kokand-1912 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Super League Matches Track Mash'al Next Match Prediction Track Kokand-1912 Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Mash'al & Kokand-1912!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4