Predictions / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / Riga vs BFC Daugavpils

Prediction Audit: Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Riga Riga
Sep 07, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.54
1 1.06
xG Accuracy: 85%
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Riga at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Riga Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Riga higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Riga -30.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Riga 46.8% 77.0% -30.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.6% 13.4% +15.3 pp Model Edge
BFC Daugavpils 24.5% 9.6% +14.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Riga's win probability at 77.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 30.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Riga; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Riga by 30.2 percentage points (77.0% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Riga 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · BFC Daugavpils 24.6%
    • xG · Riga 1.54 — BFC Daugavpils 1.06
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Riga 1.20 · Draw 6.92 · BFC Daugavpils 9.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Riga 77.0% · Draw 13.4% · BFC Daugavpils 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Riga 1.20 · Draw 6.92 · BFC Daugavpils 9.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Riga 77.0% · Draw 13.4% · BFC Daugavpils 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472937

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Riga 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Riga; market prices Riga instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Riga 1.54 xG vs BFC Daugavpils 1.06 → Riga 46.8%
  • Market: Riga ~77.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions