The model missed the final outcome (Tukums win 2–1).
The model had projected Ogre United at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ogre United Tukums ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 34.2% | 49.8% | -15.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Ogre United | 36.1% | 26.8% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Tukums's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Tukums win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Tukums than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Ogre United; match finished Tukums
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ogre United by 15.5 percentage points (51.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tukums 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Ogre United 36.1%
- xG · Tukums 1.28 — Ogre United 1.32
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tukums 1.86 · Draw 3.94 · Ogre United 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Tukums 49.8% · Draw 23.5% · Ogre United 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Tukums 1.86 · Draw 3.94 · Ogre United 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Tukums 49.8% · Draw 23.5% · Ogre United 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tukums win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Tukums & Ogre United!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Virsliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga | 31 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 |
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 71 | 22 | +49 | 74 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 49 | 30 | +19 | 61 |
| 4 | Tukums | 31 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Ogre United | 31 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
| 9 | Super Nova | 30 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 10 | Grobiņa | 31 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
