AI correctly predicted the Riga win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Riga Riga ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 45.3% | 90.7% | -45.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.7% | +23.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Ogre United | 25.8% | 3.6% | +22.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Riga's win probability at 90.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 45.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Riga win 4–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Riga attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Riga higher (90.7% vs model 45.3%, 45.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Riga win 4–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Riga 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Ogre United 25.8%
- xG · Riga 1.51 — Ogre United 1.09
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Riga 1.04 · Draw 16.66 · Ogre United 25.93
- Implied 1X2 · Riga 90.7% · Draw 5.7% · Ogre United 3.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Riga 1.04 · Draw 16.66 · Ogre United 25.93
- Implied 1X2 · Riga 90.7% · Draw 5.7% · Ogre United 3.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Riga win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (45 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Virsliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga | 31 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 |
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 71 | 22 | +49 | 74 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 49 | 30 | +19 | 61 |
| 4 | Tukums | 31 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Ogre United | 31 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
| 9 | Super Nova | 30 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 10 | Grobiņa | 31 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
