Predictions / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / Super Nova vs FK Liepaja

Prediction Audit: Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Super Nova Super Nova
Aug 09, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja

The model missed the final outcome (FK Liepaja win 1–2).

The model had projected Super Nova at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Super Nova FK Liepaja ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Liepaja higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Liepaja -12.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Super Nova 35.2% 26.2% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.8% +3.8 pp Aligned
FK Liepaja 35.2% 47.9% -12.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Liepaja's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was FK Liepaja win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FK Liepaja than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Super Nova; match finished FK Liepaja

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Super Nova by 12.8 percentage points (48.0% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Super Nova 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · FK Liepaja 35.2%
    • xG · Super Nova 1.30 — FK Liepaja 1.30
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Super Nova 3.58 · Draw 3.64 · FK Liepaja 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 26.2% · Draw 25.8% · FK Liepaja 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Super Nova 3.58 · Draw 3.64 · FK Liepaja 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 26.2% · Draw 25.8% · FK Liepaja 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Liepaja win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2963131

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Liepaja win · Super Nova 1–2 FK Liepaja
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Virsliga
  • Fixture: Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Super Nova 1.3 — FK Liepaja 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Virsliga Matches Track Super Nova Next Match Prediction Track FK Liepaja Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Super Nova & FK Liepaja!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions