Predictions / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / Tukums vs FK Liepaja

Prediction Audit: Tukums vs FK Liepaja Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tukums Tukums
Aug 02, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 74%
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja

The model missed the final outcome (Tukums win 2–1).

The model had projected FK Liepaja at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Liepaja Tukums ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Liepaja higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Liepaja -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tukums 33.3% 30.4% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.1% +4.5 pp Aligned
FK Liepaja 37.1% 44.5% -7.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Liepaja's win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tukums win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FK Liepaja. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned FK Liepaja; match finished Tukums

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Liepaja by 7.5 percentage points (44.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tukums 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · FK Liepaja 37.0%
    • xG · Tukums 1.26 — FK Liepaja 1.34
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums 2.96 · Draw 3.58 · FK Liepaja 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums 30.4% · Draw 25.1% · FK Liepaja 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums 2.96 · Draw 3.58 · FK Liepaja 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums 30.4% · Draw 25.1% · FK Liepaja 44.5%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tukums win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1944917

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tukums win · Tukums 2–1 FK Liepaja
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Virsliga
  • Fixture: Tukums vs FK Liepaja
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Tukums 1.26 — FK Liepaja 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions