Predictions / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / Auda vs BFC Daugavpils

Prediction Audit: Auda vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Auda Auda
Jul 26, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils

AI correctly predicted the Auda win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Auda Auda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Auda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Auda -17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Auda 35.2% 52.2% -17.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.1% +5.6 pp Model Higher
BFC Daugavpils 35.2% 23.8% +11.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Auda's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Auda win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Auda than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Auda higher (52.2% vs model 35.2%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Auda win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Auda 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · BFC Daugavpils 35.2%
    • xG · Auda 1.30 — BFC Daugavpils 1.30
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Auda 1.78 · Draw 3.86 · BFC Daugavpils 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Auda 52.2% · Draw 24.1% · BFC Daugavpils 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Auda 1.78 · Draw 3.86 · BFC Daugavpils 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Auda 52.2% · Draw 24.1% · BFC Daugavpils 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Auda win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454410

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Auda win · Auda 1–0 BFC Daugavpils
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Latvian Higher League
  • Fixture: Auda vs BFC Daugavpils
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Auda 1.3 — BFC Daugavpils 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions