AI correctly predicted the Riga win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Riga Riga ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 27.5% | 9.8% | +17.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.1% | 15.4% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Riga | 43.4% | 74.8% | -31.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Riga's win probability at 74.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 31.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Riga win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Riga higher (74.8% vs model 43.4%, 31.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Riga win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Super Nova 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Riga 43.3%
- xG · Super Nova 1.13 — Riga 1.47
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Super Nova 9.42 · Draw 6.02 · Riga 1.24
- Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 9.8% · Draw 15.4% · Riga 74.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Super Nova 9.42 · Draw 6.02 · Riga 1.24
- Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 9.8% · Draw 15.4% · Riga 74.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Riga win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Virsliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 73 |
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 29 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| 9 | Tukums | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga | 31 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 |
| 2 | Rīgas FS | 29 | 70 | 21 | +49 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 30 | 48 | 29 | +19 | 60 |
| 4 | Tukums | 30 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 23 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Super Nova | 29 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 9 | Ogre United | 30 | 29 | 76 | -47 | 15 |
| 10 | Grobiņa | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 25 |
