Predictions / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils

Prediction Audit: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ogre United Ogre United
Jul 19, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.35
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils

The model missed the final outcome (BFC Daugavpils win 0–4).

The model had projected Ogre United at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ogre United BFC Daugavpils ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices BFC Daugavpils higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: BFC Daugavpils -17.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ogre United 37.5% 25.6% +11.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.7% +5.9 pp Model Higher
BFC Daugavpils 32.9% 50.7% -17.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates BFC Daugavpils's win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was BFC Daugavpils win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about BFC Daugavpils than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ogre United by 17.9 percentage points (55.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ogre United 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · BFC Daugavpils 32.9%
    • xG · Ogre United 1.35 — BFC Daugavpils 1.25
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ogre United 3.62 · Draw 3.92 · BFC Daugavpils 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Ogre United 25.6% · Draw 23.7% · BFC Daugavpils 50.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ogre United 3.62 · Draw 3.92 · BFC Daugavpils 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Ogre United 25.6% · Draw 23.7% · BFC Daugavpils 50.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result BFC Daugavpils win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1626193

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result BFC Daugavpils win · Ogre United 0–4 BFC Daugavpils
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Latvian Higher League
  • Fixture: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Ogre United 1.35 — BFC Daugavpils 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions