The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected SC Braga B at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 SC Braga B Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · SC Braga B 1.45 — Fafe 1.25
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May 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · SC Braga B 0–0 Fafe
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guimaraes B | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| 2 | Amarante | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| 3 | Trofense | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Varzim | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Paredes | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | SC Braga B | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Fafe | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 8 | AD Marco 09 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | Sanjoanense | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 18 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 28 |
| 2 | Trofense | 18 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 3 | Fafe | 18 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 24 |
| 4 | Paredes | 18 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 18 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 6 | Sanjoanense | 18 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 13 |
| 7 | Amarante | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | SC Braga B | 18 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 25 |
| 9 | AD Marco 09 | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 10 | São João Ver | 18 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 14 |
