The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Ægir at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ægir Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ægir | 39.0% | 15.7% | +23.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 12.9% | +16.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Grindavik | 31.5% | 71.4% | -40.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Grindavik's win probability at 71.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 40.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Ægir; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ægir by 40.0 percentage points (79.0% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ægir 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Grindavik 31.5%
- xG · Ægir 1.38 — Grindavik 1.22
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ægir 5.87 · Draw 7.16 · Grindavik 1.29
- Implied 1X2 · Ægir 15.7% · Draw 12.9% · Grindavik 71.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ægir 5.87 · Draw 7.16 · Grindavik 1.29
- Implied 1X2 · Ægir 15.7% · Draw 12.9% · Grindavik 71.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (40 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Deild — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 65 | 33 | +32 | 45 |
| 2 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 43 |
| 4 | Fylkir | 22 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 28 |
| 6 | Njardvik | 22 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 38 |
| 7 | Grotta | 22 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 27 |
| 8 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 28 |
| 9 | Völsungur | 22 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 10 | Vestri | 22 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 25 | 69 | -44 | 9 |
