Predictions / Football / Iceland. 1. Deild / Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding

Prediction Audit: Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Throttur Reykjavik Throttur Reykjavik
Jul 29, 2026 - 19:45
4 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 43%
Afturelding Afturelding

The model missed the final outcome (Throttur Reykjavik win 4–1).

The model had projected Afturelding at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Afturelding Throttur Reykjavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Throttur Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Throttur Reykjavik -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Throttur Reykjavik 33.8% 41.9% -8.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.9% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Afturelding 36.6% 35.1% +1.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Throttur Reykjavik's win probability at 41.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Throttur Reykjavik win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Throttur Reykjavik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Afturelding; match finished Throttur Reykjavik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Afturelding by 8.2 percentage points (44.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Throttur Reykjavik 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Afturelding 36.6%
    • xG · Throttur Reykjavik 1.27 — Afturelding 1.33
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Throttur Reykjavik 2.21 · Draw 4.04 · Afturelding 2.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Throttur Reykjavik 41.9% · Draw 22.9% · Afturelding 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Throttur Reykjavik 2.21 · Draw 4.04 · Afturelding 2.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Throttur Reykjavik 41.9% · Draw 22.9% · Afturelding 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Throttur Reykjavik win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455357

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Throttur Reykjavik win · Throttur Reykjavik 4–1 Afturelding
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 19:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Throttur Reykjavik 1.27 — Afturelding 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9